A few more Football Scoring Thoughts

Last time we talked a little about how sometimes getting one point all the time can be more valuable than getting two points most of the time. This time I want to talk about something that really bothers me in the NFL and college. I feel like coaches kick a field goal way too often, especially when they have a good offense. If it is 4th and 1 or 4th and 2 on the 25 or 30, and the game is up and down, with both offenses looking pretty good, then why settle for a FG that you will only make around 70% of the time (note: so far this year NFL kickers have made 69.3% of field-goals from 40-50 yards - number computed by taking data from http://www.nfl.com/stats/playersort/NFL/K-FIELDGOALS/2005/regular?&_3:col_1=19 and importing to an excel spreadsheet to get the sums quickly and accurately). I would choose my short yardage play of choice, whether that be a quick slant to a receiver, or banging it up the middle. If you don't make it, then the other team has to go a pretty long way to get a score, but if you do make it, then you leave the ball in the offense's hands to go and try to do something else good. If it ends up being 4th and 10 four downs later, then just kick the fg, 1-5 yards closer, and no harm done. The stats say that if you go for it on 4th and 1, you have a 70-75% chance of making it (see http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=131&cat=1 - I split out the 4th and 1 statistics from the chart and computed everything myself, and got 73.2% - the sample seems fairly large (183 attempts) so I figure 70%-75% is a fair range. On 4th and 2 it is impossible to calculate the exact data from that website, but I imagine it would be around 55%-60%, which still isn't a bad deal depending on the situation). So really, you have a better shot of making the 1st down than kicking the field goal... and not only that, but if you miss the field goal you lose seven or eight yards of field position too! And yet how many NFL coaches would go for it in this situation in the first quarter?

Now remember, we learned last time we always have to take all the factors of the game into account, but, with all things being equal I am surprised that we don't have people going for it more often. And remember also, getting a 1st down does not somehow guarantee us seven points, so it is a little more complicated than it seems. Lets just say that worst case we get seven or eight yards average in the next three downs (and I would imagine that the average is even higher than that - but if you can find me hard statistics that would be wonderful), and then we decide we want to kick. Assuming this moves us into the 30-39 yard field goal range, that improves our chances of making the field goal to 86.1%. Multiply that by the .732 probability you got the first on the last possession, and you get .630, which is only around 6% lower than the odds of making the 40-49 yarder.

I understand that the above was a very loose simulation, and a lot of things can go wrong in the next four downs as well (sacks and penalties moving you back behind where you were before, interceptions, fumbles, injuries, etc.) but we are assuming there is some inherent goodness to having your offense on the field despite all the bad things that could happen. And I am also assuming that the odds of you stringing together a few more first downs and getting into the endzone without having any more 4th down adventures is pretty reasonable, especially compared to the odds of the bad things happening.

That is all I want to say on that, because I could keep going deeper with various statistics, and field position ideas, and even looking at what bad things can happen on the kickoff if you make a field goal compared to losing it on downs. The thing about football is that you have to draw the line somewhere, because if you try to break every scenerio down into statistics, it gets really confusing, and you quickly realize it is impossible. You have to have some general ideas, and follow your gut. I say the above stats are mostly moot if you are a team like the Ravens or Bears (bad offense, great defense - three points goes a long way here, and you probably won't get seven anyway if you convert), and especially interesting if you are a team like the Colts or Seahawks (other way around - seven is what you really need, and you have a good shot at getting it if you get the 1st).

I promise this is my last super nerdy statistics post for a while, because honestly, the stats don't mean much, and I know it's boring for everyone else. I just want people to think about going for it as a much better idea than it already is (you can even think about going for it vs. punting it when you have it on your own 30 if you please - it will not be talked about by me however (and you can already hear the sighs of relief (and I think that nesting parenthesis is looked down upon moreso in writing than in Mathematics or Comp Sci, but that is what I am, so this is what you get))).

Thanks for bearing with all that (or ignoring it at reading the other posts anyway).

Kyle