One last thing with numbers

Ok, so I promised to get to my thoughts on going for the win at the end of a game as compared to kicking the tieing field goal as in KC - Oakland and TB - Washington. In both of these cases the ball was at the one-yard-line. Now, our stats from the last post do not apply, because your stats on converting a fourth and one at some yard-line which is not the one are higher than converting at the one, because the defense has to respect real passes when you are at the thirty (no, hokey passes to the eligible-receiver tackle or to the fullback running toward the sideline are not real passes). So we can say that we may have a sixty percent chance of making it on fourth and goal at the one (again, no definitive stats, but I would imagine this is in the neighborhood). Now if two teams are evenly matched, then they would pretty much have to each have a fifty percent shot at winning the overtime before it has started, right? So looking at it I don't really see how going for it could be a bad move. I mean, the players and the crowd want you to go for it, so you have nothing to lose there, and the media sure as hell wants you to go for it so they can blabber on about it forever. I commend Mr. Vermeil and Mr. Gruden for their decisions (and remember that a Mr. Leinart (yes him and not Mr. Carroll) was the first to do that this year, and when there was much more on the line (one loss does not ruin your NFL season, it does in college)), and I believe that I would have made the exact same decision in their shoes.