More Ravens fun

How seven days can change your mind...

So it seems that Kyle Boller is figuring out how to play quarterback in the NFL, finally. He has gotten away from pressure, made good decisions, and been accurate for the most part. Most importantly he has been fairly cool-headed the last few games. We have not really seen him randomly lobbing balls into the middle of the field, or into triple coverage. His one interception the last few games was to an open receiver, but he just overthrew him because there was pressure in the middle, so he had to get it high. That is fine, all quarterbacks do that. Really I have been tremendously impressed with his play the last two games.

Now, I am not saying that he is the solution for the future, but it looks like he very well may be turning things around. I am now in the camp that we should bring in a capable veteran, like a Brad Johnson figure, who can compete with Kyle in training camp and can also be a good backup. Anthony Wright and his contract have got to go.

Now, with that said, there are issues. The offensive line is just laughable. Most teams create holes for their running backs, the Ravens just sort of create a wall to run into. I now believe that the running backs are not the issue at all, but the offensive line is at the root of the rushing problems. This must be fixed for next year. I have also sort of flipped on Jamal Lewis. If he wants a top 3 contract for running backs, screw him, but if he wants like a top 10, I say we should pay him. His combination of power/speed/vision is unmatched in the NFL. I think as soon as we get a line, he will break out. He has also been denying a lot of the stuff that he was reportedly saying earlier in the year. He claims he was misquoted and quotes were used out of context all the time. Now I don't know who to believe between him and journalists, but I am for giving him a second chance if he honestly wants to be in the purple next year. Anyways, if he actually sucks, we can always cut him and not pay a few years of his contract, because that is how the NFL works.

The defense has also looked rather mediocre, or even bad recently. I feel like the Ravens should not have an average defense, and something needs to be done, especially against the run. We need better defensive linemen. A good safety to go with Mr. Reed wouldn't hurt either.

Anyway, I hope everyone had/has a nice holiday.

Ravens 2006

Here are my thoughts on the Ravens in 2006.

Draft:

Bad: Ravens get top three pick in draft, give up either:
A) All picks in this draft
B) 1st, 3rd round picks in 2006, 1st in 2007, 1st in 2008

Good: Ravens get #1 pick in draft, give up:
1st and 3rd round pick in 2005, some veteran (maybe Ray Lewis with all the problems he has caused in the locker room recently). I don't want Leinart. He has not impressed me at all, and I have watched quite a few USC games. Bush on the other hand has been amazing. But I don't think either side would do the above deal, so I'm sure I'm out of luck.

Also Good: Ravens keep their picks and draft mostly OL and Defense, with maybe some QB or RB in there too.

Positions:

QB: Kyle Boller has got to be the most frustrating person to root for. He obviously has the physical tools. His strike to Mark Clayton last week that must have gone at least 50 yards in the air, which he threw off his back foot was beautiful. The stories about his arm strength are pretty well known. But his two picks were awful, especially the one where he just randomly chucked it into the endzone. His decision making is almost comical at times. And I actually laughed at his fumble. This guy is just not cool or in control.

I would like to see him be a backup for a year or two, and then come back and try again. He is pretty cheap, so I would like to see the Ravens get a Veteran next year and then maybe come back with Boller in 2007 if he has improved. Steve McNair will probably be on the market, and same with Kerry Collins. These are both reasonable options. If the Vikings are desparate to move Culpepper I would certainly look into that, but I wouldn't really give much up for him.

RB: I was the #1 Jamal Lewis supporter all year, but his comments have really made me do a 180 on him. He has said that he is not running hard on purpose, he said that the Ravens have betrayed him, he is like a scourge in the locker room. I would not resign him. I think that the worst mistake that the Ravens could make is to Franchise him, because he is just not worth that kind of money to the Ravens. I think he still has some great years left, but just not with the Ravens.

I would sign Chester Taylor to a multi-year deal. Obviously getting Bush would be nice, but it won't happen. We would also need a bruiser. If Lendale White is available in the Second Round, I would like to grab him. He looks very impressive, and people seem to think he should be a decent pro. No word on where he would go exactly until he gets to the combine, but people seem to think he will be a late 1st round draft pick.

WR + TE: No issues here (first time in many many years where we can say that - two thumbs up to Mason and Clayton).

OL: Ack. Big issues. We need a Right Tackle, a Center (Mike Flynn is washed up), and a few good versitile guys. I am not thrilled with Vincent (the Right Guard), but we are locked up with him in a long term deal, so may as well stick with him. JO and EM only have about one more year of being above average I think, so we are going to need a total overhaul soon. Must sign/draft people.

Def: The Ravens need a stud Defensive Tackle, or two. I like Kelly Gregg, but honestly, he is a 280 pound defensive tackle. And Kemoeatu I think is even worse (despite being quite a bit larger). I feel like if we can get a stud tackle like Siragusa or Adams from the Super Bowl year that would help so much. You cannot run the ball against teams with guys like that.

Honestly, if I was the Ravens, I would play a 4-4. Chris McAlister is one of the most physical corners in football, and yet the Ravens play these coverages where he is 10 yards off the receiver all the time. I would jam the receivers and blitz way more. Adalius Thomas and Bart Scott both play in the secondary sometimes, and Ray Lewis is a great cover linebacker, when he is healthy, so I don't think this should be a problem. I would love to have our front four being Suggs, Gregg, Stud DT, Stud DE and our linebackers being Thomas, Lewis, Polley, Scott. Keep Weaver as a backup, and bring Boulware in to blitz, and I would be happy. If we can get two new Tackles that is all the better. I like the idea of having McAlister, Rolle, and Reed as the secondary.

For all the talk of the 46 at the beginning of the year and the exciting blitzes, we have not seen it at all. The defense has been a huge dissapointment. Hopefully we can get everyone healthy and actually do things like blitz next year.

The Ravens should have some cap room, so hopefully we can make some good things happen in the offseason.

Why Stat Based Contract Incentives are Dumb

Case 1: You are a running back on a team which is out of playoff contention. You get a $1.5 million dollar bonus if you reach 1500 yards on the year, which doubles your salary. You have 1488 yards with thirty seconds left in the game. You are down by two, with one time out left. The call is a power sweep on 3rd and 2. You get to the outside and have the first down, and have two decisions. You can step out of bounds, save your team's time out, and help your team win the game. Or you can say screw it, this game is meaningless, I very well could not get another carry the rest of the season, and cut it upfield and go for the money. What do you do?

Case 2: You are the coach of a playoff team whose last game, which is a Monday night game, is meaningless. You figure to play your starters for most of the first quarter and then sit them. Your superstar running back gets a $2 million dollar bonus if he leads the league in rushing. After the first two series your running back is 53 yards out of the league lead. Do you bench him with the rest of the starters? He needs 29 yards at halftime. 13 more yards at the end of the third. You are playing the Raiders, your most hated rival, and a team with nothing to lose, who is more than willing to do something dirty to end your running backs season. When do you take him out?

Case 3: You are a baseball manager in the final game of the season. This game could determine home field advantage depending on who you face in the playoffs. Your starter gets a $2 million bonus if he has 20 wins. He has 19. It is 10-3 at the start of the bottom of the fifth. Your starter gets two outs, but gives up five runs, and there are runners at the corners. He obviously can't get the win if you pull him, but he clearly doesn't have his stuff tonight.

The fact that you have to think about anything other than doing the best thing for your team is stupid. The fact that people can say that the Giants are purposely not giving Tiki Barber carries because they don't want to pay his bonus is stupid. If I was an executive I would not have stat based incentives, and if I was a player I would not take them. I would be fine with incentives based on All-Star, MVP, etc. because they are not concrete things. Basing them directly on stats makes people deal with personal issues that you shouldn't have to deal with when you are playing sports. All anyone should worry about is helping the team.

On a related note stats like Completion Percentage and QB Rating are dumb because it rewards QB's that take sacks instead of throwing it away. There have been QB's who would eat the ball instead of throwing it away, because it reflects more poorly on them to throw it away. This is also dumb, and there should be some new stat created, similar to QB Rating, where something like yards per completion and number of completions are more important than incompletions. There will be problems with any formula created, but penalizing incompletions so heavily, when they are rarely that bad, seems silly.

The Colts

Today we found a new reason that the Colts were right to play their starters. They got absolutely manhandled today by the Chargers. Their offensive line looked horrible, after playing absolutely fantastic the rest of the year. The Chargers exposed problems that the Colts probably didn't know they had. Now they can try to fix these problems in the next week. If they had not played the starters, they very well could have played the Chargers after the bye, and gotten exposed then.

If I am Tony Dungy, I absolutely have to fix these problems before the playoffs. I play my starters at least for the first half next week, and until the end if the game is in doubt. If all goes well next week, and the Colts win comfortably, then I take the last game against Arizona and play the starters for one or two series, and then bench them. If next week goes like this week, you have got to play the starters for at least the first half, and longer if need be against Arizona. You have to go into the playoffs on a good note. I could not even imagine benching the starters after getting beat up like that.

By the way, the undefeated Dolphins team is absolutely classless. I will root for any team, no matter how much I dislike them, if they are undefeated late in the season. Don Shula has class, but no one else in the organization does. Having very public parties everytime the last undefeated team fails is ridiculous. A few years ago when Bob Greise was asked about the 13-0 Broncos, which his SON PLAYED ON, and he said that he hoped they lost. Rooting against your children to preserve some ridiculous record which doesn't have half the weight that going 15-1 or 14-2 in this age of free agency and salary caps is ludicrous. I hope someone goes undefeated next year.

More fun with those same draft picks

Alright, here are my thoughts on how each of these guys turned out. I will give them one of four scores - Superstar, Good, Starter, Bust. Obviously, you want superstars when you draft someone in the top five, but getting good solid players is not bad. I will say that to be a superstar, you have to be in the top 2 or 3 at your position for more than one year, and too be good you have to be in the top 5 to 8 for a few years. Starter is a long time starter in the NFL that was a decent player and Bust is self explanitory. I will also say unknown for people that we just don't know yet.


2005:
1 - Alex Smith - QB - Unknown
2- Ronnie Brown - RB - Unknown
4- Cedric Benson - RB - Unknown
5- Carnell Williams - RB - Unknown

2004:
1- Eli Manning - QB - Unknown, but has looked pretty good this year
4- Phillip Rivers - QB - Unknown

2003:
1- Carson Palmer - QB - Unknown, but looks like he will be between good/superstar for a few years, but that is not certain.

2002:
1- David Carr - QB - Unknown, bordering on starter/bust.
3- Joey Harrington - QB - Looking like a bust, but too early to officially give him that title, so we will say unknown

2001:
1- Michael Vick - QB - Good
5- LaDanian Tomlinson - RB - Superstar

2000:
5- Jamal Lewis - RB - Good

1999:
1- Tim Couch - QB - Bust
2- Donovan McNabb - QB - Good/Superstar... we'll say superstar.
3- Akili Smith - QB - Bust
4- Edgerrin James - RB - Good/Superstar... we will say good to even out the Don-O-Van.
5- Ricky Williams - RB - Superstarish for a while before he went totally nuts. We'll just call him 'good' and leave it at that.

1998:
1- Peyton Manning - QB - SuperDuperStar
2- Ryan Leaf - QB - SuperDuperBust
5- Curtis Enis - RB -Bust bust bust

1997:
None

1996:
None (Though Lawrence Phillips - RB went #6) - Bust

1995:
1- Kijana Carter - RB - Bust
3- Steve McNair - QB - Hard not to call him a Superstar in the late 90's
5- Kerry Collins - QB - Starter

1994:
2- Marshall Faulk - RB - Superstar
3- Heath Shuler - QB - Bust

1993:
1- Drew Bledsoe - QB - Between good and starter, we will say good because of his longevity
2- Rick Mirer - QB - Bust
3- Garrison Hearst - RB - Between good and starter, we will say starter.

1992:
None (Though David Klingler - QB went #6) - Bust

1991:
None

1990:
1- Jeff George - QB - Infamous Bust
2- Blair Thomas - RB - Bust
(Andre Ware - QB went #7) - Bust

9 Unknown (Looks like Carr and Harrington are pretty bad, and Manning and Palmer will be pretty good)
5 Star
5 Good
2 Starters
9 Busts, and 3 more busts from #6 and 7

So really you have just as good of a shot at getting a total bust as a good player from your high draft pick. This is why it isn't worth trading the kitchen sink to get someone. With that being said, I honestly believe Reggie Bush is going to be awesome, but people thought that Ryan Leaf was going to be also. So just stand pat, and draft at your position.

The NFL Draft and skill positions.

The following is the list of the Running Backs and QB's selected in the first 5 picks of the NFL Draft for the last 15 years.

2005:
1 - Alex Smith - QB
2- Ronnie Brown - RB
4- Cedric Benson - RB
5- Carnell Williams - RB

2004:
1- Eli Manning - QB
4- Phillip Rivers - QB

2003:
1- Carson Palmer - QB

2002:
1- David Carr - QB
3- Joey Harrington - QB

2001:
1- Michael Vick - QB
5- LaDanian Tomlinson - RB

2000:
5- Jamal Lewis - RB

1999:
1- Tim Couch - QB
2- Donovan McNabb - QB
3- Akili Smith - QB
4- Edgerrin James - RB
5- Ricky Williams - RB

1998:
1- Peyton Manning - QB
2- Ryan Leaf - QB
5- Curtis Enis - RB

1997:
None

1996:
None (Though Lawrence Phillips - RB went #6)

1995:
1- Kijana Carter - RB
3- Steve McNair - QB
5- Kerry Collins - QB

1994:
2- Marshall Faulk - RB
3- Heath Shuler - QB

1993:
1- Drew Bledsoe - QB
2- Rick Mirer - QB
3- Garrison Hearst - RB

1992:
None (Though David Klingler - QB went #6)

1991:
None

1990:
1- Jeff George - QB
2- Blair Thomas - RB
(Andre Ware - QB went #7)

Now, what do all these players have in common, other than being drafted high? Well... absolutely nothing. The thing with the NFL Draft is that these teams can do all this work in scouting and interviewing and working in the combine, but honestly, you have no idea how these 20 year old kids are going to do in the NFL. A lot of talent does not mean success, in any part of life, but in football especially.

With the more recent draft picks, it is hard to tell how some players are going to do because they just haven't gotten the time yet, so the older drafts are particularly telling. People come out of college with all the promise in the world, but sometimes they fail miserably in the NFL, even though they were the #1 draft pick. Sometimes they become Peyton Manning. You just have no idea what is going to happen.

For anyone who does not know, my hometown team is the Baltimore Ravens. There is a lot of mumbling about trying to trade up in the next draft and get Matt Leinart (or Reggie Bush). I will be the first one to admit that the QB situation is not optimal, to say the least, but I think giving away the kitchen sink isn't worth it to take a gamble on another West Coast QB. If you are a 1-15 team and already have the draft pick, and don't have to give anything up for it, by all means, I would certainly go for it. But giving up like all your picks in this draft and next years number one to take someone out of college is a big mistake.

Football games are won in the trenches, and that is where the Ravens need the most help. If I were the Ravens in the next draft I would just load up on O-Line and D-Line, and maybe pick up a QB if one comes along. However, I wouldn't give up many many picks just for a specific guy. If the Ravens are desperate for a QB, I would sign a veteran, much like the Cowboys did this year with Bledsoe. You know what you are getting, and won't have to give anything up for them. The past has shown that by giving up tons for an early draft pick, you are taking a gamble, one that you net you a bad player more often than a superstar.

Should the Colts rest their starters if they have home field locked up?

So there has been a lot of talk recently about whether or not Tony Dungy should rest his starters if the Colts are 14-0, and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. On one hand you have the people saying that you have to go for it, there are way fewer opportunities to go 16-0 than to win the Super Bowl, and no one ever gets hurt on the Colts anyway. Then there are people who think you should absolutely not risk it, you bench all important starters, and cruise through the last few games, and get everyone healthy and rested for the playoffs.

Lets look at each argument:

I cannot argue the fact that being the only team to have a 16-0 regular season would bring a team far more accolades down the line than winning a super bowl. Everyone talks about the Dolphins team that was perfect, and no one cares at all about the 2002 Bucs. Albeit, the Dolphins also won a Super Bowl, but the perfect season is the more important part of the equation. If the Colts want to be seen on TV drinking champagne every year waiting for the last undefeated team to lose, then they can go right ahead. If they are undefeated in the regular season, they will be talked about for a long long time.

Also, it is also true that everyone on Colts seems to be pretty much invunerable. Other than the Edge, who else can you remember who is important ever being injured for more than a week on the Colts. And I certainly don't ever remember Peyton Manning ever EVER missing even a single snap of a football game due to injury. And come to think of it, I don't even remember him ever being hit hard. I don't know if it is pocket presence, a good offensive line, or a combination of the two (I would guess 66% and 33%, respectively), but it is remarkable how he doesn't get hit.

However, what if someone gets injured? And by someone I mean Peyton. That would kill the Colts season. It would be over. No one could make that offense tick like Peyton. I honestly believe that having Peyton Manning on your team is like a free meal ticket to mediocrity at least. I feel like if he was the QB for the Texans, they would not end the season any worse than 7-9, and maybe better. He is the best QB in the league, and if he wins a Super Bowl, and does what he is doing for a few more years, he will be the best QB ever. If he goes down, everything in Indy goes down the tubes, especially Tony Dungy's job.

Andy Reid, a head coach I respect tremendously, ALWAYS benches EVERYONE when the games stopped mattering, and his teams never came out rusty. Making the NFC Championship four straight years is good evidence that a strategy works. The last thing you want at the end of the regular season is a Pyrrhic victory (SAT word!) where you lose a couple players. I also think that the Colts offense would not come out in June rusty, if they didn't touch a football until then, so that shouldn't really be a concern.

So with all this said, what would I do?

Play the starters every game, until the outcome is no longer in question. Tell them to give 110% and go all out. I feel like the psycological pressure of playing a 16-0 team in the playoffs, a team that knows that they are the best team in the league, more than outweighs the chance of a key injury. I would treat each game like I treated the last, and not act any differently at all, until the end of the game, if it is garbage time. If what you are doing is good enough to go 14-0, keep doing it until you lose. I think your players will thank you for the chance to go 16-0, the fans will love it, and morale and confidence will be at an all time high (unless Peyton gets hurt, then you are uber-SOL). So, Tony Dungy, if your team continues winning, don't change a thing.